ABSTRACT
The longitudinal immunologic status of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients and its association with the clinical outcome are barely known. Thus, we sought to analyze the temporal profiles of specific antibodies, as well as the associations between the antibodies, proinflammatory cytokines, and survival of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A total of 1830 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were recruited. The temporal profiles of the virus, antibodies, and cytokines of the patients until 12 weeks since illness onset were fitted by the locally weighted scatter plot smoothing method. The mediation effect of cytokines on the associations between antibody responses and survival were explored by mediation analysis. Of the 1830 patients, 1435 were detectable for SARS-CoV-2, while 395 were positive in specific antibodies only. Of the 1435 patients, 2.4% presented seroconversion for neither immunoglobulin G (IgG) nor immunoglobulin M (IgM) during hospitalization. The seropositive rates of IgG and IgM were 29.6% and 48.1%, respectively, in the first week, and plateaued within five weeks. For the patients discharged from the hospital, the IgM decreased slowly, while high levels of IgG were maintained at around 188â AU·mL-1 for the 12 weeks since illness onset. In contrast, in the patients who subsequently died, IgM declined rapidly and IgG dropped to 87â AU·mL-1 at the twelfth week. Elevated interleukin-6, interleukin-8, interleukin-10, interleukin-1ß, interleukin-2R, and tumor necrosis factor-α levels were observed in the deceased patients in comparison with the discharged patients, and 12.5% of the association between IgG level and mortality risk was mediated by these cytokines. Our study deciphers the temporal profiles of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies within the 12 weeks since illness onset and indicates the protective effect of antibody response on survival, which may help to guide prognosis estimation.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently a pandemic affecting over 200 countries. Many cities have established designated fever clinics to triage suspected COVID-19 patients from other patients with similar symptoms. However, given the limited availability of the nucleic acid test as well as long waiting time for both the test and radiographic examination, the quarantine or therapeutic decisions for a large number of mixed patients were often not made in time. We aimed to identify simple and quickly available laboratory biomarkers to facilitate effective triage at the fever clinics for sorting suspected COVID-19 patients from those with COVID-19-like symptoms. METHODS: We collected clinical, etiological, and laboratory data of 989 patients who visited the Fever Clinic at Wuhan Union Hospital, Wuhan, China, from Jan 31 to Feb 21. Based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection, they were divided into two groups: SARS-CoV-2-positive patients as cases and SARS-CoV-2-negative patients as controls. We compared the clinical features and laboratory findings of the two groups, and analyzed the diagnostic performance of several laboratory parameters in predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection and made relevant comparisons to the China diagnosis guideline of having a normal or decreased number of leukocytes (≤9·5 109/L) or lymphopenia (<1·1 109/L). FINDINGS: Normal or decreased number of leukocytes (≤9·5 109/L), lymphopenia (<1·1 109/L), eosinopenia (<0·02 109/L), and elevated hs-CRP (≥4 mg/L) were presented in 95·0%, 52·2%, 74·7% and 86·7% of COVID-19 patients, much higher than 87·2%, 28·8%, 31·3% and 45·2% of the controls, respectively. The eosinopenia produced a sensitivity of 74·7% and specificity of 68·7% for separating the two groups with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0·717. The combination of eosinopenia and elevated hs-CRP yielded a sensitivity of 67·9% and specificity of 78·2% (AUC=0·730). The addition of eosinopenia alone or the combination of eosinopenia and elevated hs-CRP into the guideline-recommended diagnostic parameters for COVID-19 improved the predictive capacity with higher than zero of both net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). INTERPRETATION: The combination of eosinopenia and elevated hs-CRP can effectively triage suspected COVID-19 patients from other patients attending the fever clinic with COVID-19-like initial symptoms. This finding would be particularly useful for designing triage strategies in an epidemic region having a large number of patients with COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases while limited medical resources for nucleic acid tests and radiographic examination.